Desemprego Ibérico e estratégias de crescimento

A social Europe e-newsletter desta semana publica o "Monthly Labour Market Monitor" debruçando-se em especial sobre Bulgária, Grécia, Irlanda, Polónia, Portugal, Roménia e Espanha. Como sabemos a situação não é famosa mas detenhamo-nos na Ibéria.

Abstraindo-nos da escala (os números espanhóis assustam quando comparados com Portugal) a situação é semelhante no que toca ao agravamento do desemprego mas apresenta algumas nuances que não devemos menosprezar.

Paralelamente ao desemprego são também evidenciados os problemas de execução orçamental, tendo como consequência os déficites excessivos (há algum déficite que o não seja?).

1) O desemprego em Espanha é o dobro de Portugal;

2) A agricultura do país vizinho apresenta um crescimento do emprego (único sector a crescer);

3) A Espanha não tem dúvidas sobre como combater a situação.

As grandes diferenças entre os dois países são:

- A Espanha não matou a sua agricultura e ela agora está a ajudar as pessoas.

- A Espanha não tem dúvida (e a União Europeia apoia) que tem de investir Biliões de euros em estradas e caminho de ferro para conseguir a retoma económica e ao mesmo tempo criar milhares de postos de trabalho, por cá os arautos (da direita) clamam para que nada se faça e se espere que a doença passe.

A ver vamos quem tem razão mas como sabemos a Espanha vai fundo nas crises mas depois sai rápido e com fortes crescimentos.

Aqui ficam os resumos sobre os dois países:

Portugal

According to Statistics Portugal, unemployment hit 563.3 thousand people in the fourth quarter of 2009, on a total employed population of 5 million workers. The unemployment rate is estimated at 10.1 %, up 2.3 pps on the corresponding quarter in 2008 and 0.3 pps on the third quarter of 2009. The increase in the number of men unemployed accounts for 60.9 % of the overall increase in unemployment. Most of the newly unemployed come from the following sectors: the mining and quarrying industry, manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply, the construction sector and services. The participation rate of the working age population was estimated at 61.8 % (56.2 % for women and 68 % for men) in the fourth quarter of 2009, down 0.5 pps over the same period.

In March 2010, Portugal's unemployment rate reached 10.5 %, up 1.5 pps on the same month a year ago. This is double the percentage recorded in mid-2002. The change affected both female and male workers, as their unemployment rates rose respectively by 1.6 and 1.3 pps in the same interval, to 9.9 % and 11.2 % in March 2010.

The youth unemployment rate has also doubled since mid-2002, reaching 21.4 % in March 2010. GDP contracted by 2.7 % in 2009 (private and public consumption were the only GDP components to record quarter-on-quarter growth in the fourth quarter) and is expected to pick up only moderately in both 2010 and 2011, by respectively 0.5 % and 0.7 % according to the Commission's EEF. The fiscal consolidation strategy, designed to bring the budget deficit down from 9.4 % in 2009 to 8.3 % - possibly 7.3 % - this year and below 3 % of GDP by 2013 through a combination of expenditure restraint (e.g. civil servants' wage freeze) and revenueraising initiatives, will weigh heavily on all domestic demand components. In this context, the unemployment rate is forecast to peak at 9.9 % this year and to remain unchanged in 2011.

Spain

Spain's jobless rate topped 20 % of the workforce in the first quarter of 2010, its highest level since 1997, according to the Instituto Nacional de Estadistica (INE).

The number of unemployed increased by 286.2 thousand as compared with the previous quarter and by 602 thousand during the last 12 months, standing at 4.6 million. The same institute estimated that the number of employed persons decreased by 251 800 in the first quarter of 2010, as compared with the previous quarter, standing at 18.4 million, out of a total of 23 million active people. In the last year, employment had fallen by 696.6 thousand. According to recent statistics, 85 % of jobs lost

were temporary contracts. Female and male unemployment rates have been more or less the same since February, the former having risen by 1.3 pps to 19.1 % from March 2009 to March 2010, and the latter by 2.2 pps to 19.2 % over the same period. In the past 12 months, employment for women fell by 105 700, and for men by 591 000, according to the INE. The number of employed persons dropped in all age groups except in the 50-54 group, where it remained practically unchanged.

The decrease in employment figures was most pronounced among the youngest groups. Youth unemployment broke new records (37 % in the first quarter of 1998), as it exceeded the 40 % mark in February this year, reaching 41.2 % in March. This is exactly twice the EU average and more than double the overall Spanish unemployment rate. Many analysts point out that this phenomenon risks halting Spain's growth ambitions in their tracks and leaving a generation of school leavers stuck on the dole, as this worrying figure may not fall fast.

In the first quarter of 2010, the number of households with all active members working decreased by 213 400 to stand at 9.2 million. Over the last 12 months, the number of households in this category decreased by 400 000. The number of households in which all active members are unemployed increased by 230 200 in the last 12 months, to 1.3 million.

Regarding the quarter-on-quarter evolution by activity sector, the number of persons employed in agriculture increased by 52 600, to stand at 835 200. Those employed in industry decreased by 81 100 persons, to a total of 2.6 million. In the construction sector, in the first quarter of the year, a decrease of 139 700 was recorded in the number of employed persons, with employment in the sector standing at close to 1.7 million. Lastly, the number of those employed in services stood at 13.3 million, with a decrease of 83 600. Over the 12-month period, employment fell mostly in construction (-15.9 %) and in industry (-10.4 %).

Spain's government has pledged to reduce its deficit from 11.2 % of GDP in 2009 to 3 % by 2013, as it envisages substantial cuts in public expenses, a civil servants' hiring freeze, raising taxes and raising the retirement age from 65 to 67. Spain's overall debt remains low compared to some other EU countries, as it stood at 53 % of GDP last year. In this context, after contracting by 3.6 % last year, it may be assumed that the economy would stabilise in 2010 (-0.4 %) before growing again in 2011 (+0.8 %). To help its economy recover, Spain is to invest billions of euros in rail and road projects. This plan is expected to create thousands of new jobs and boost the economy struck by the collapse of its construction sector and the effects of the recent international financial crisis. In this context, according to the Commission's EEF, Spain's unemployment rate could stabilise at around 19.7 % this year and remain unchanged in 2011.